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Rolling Forecast – A False Choice?

  
  
  
  
  
  

 true or flase

 

Instead of debating the relative merits of rolling forecasts over annual budgets, the right question to ask is “What’s the best way for us to plan in our organization?” Because maybe the answer involves elements of both.

There’s an annual budget process that’s approved by Management and/or the Board of Directors, and it’s used among other things to set performance targets. Few organizations lock away the budget in a drawer.  Instead, every month they compare Actual vs Budget and complete a variance analysis. That analysis can, and often does, lead to a reforecast.

So an Annual Budget and Rolling Forecast can co-exist.

Rather than debating the good and bad of budgeting versus rolling forecast, you’re much better off devoting your time to answering the question “What is the best way for us to plan in our organization?” Here are some common objectives people have in improving their planning process:

  • Improve the reliability of our financial projections

  • Build a greater sense of ownership and accountability of the numbers

  • Align the goals of the organization and line up the proper resources behind them

  • Minimize the non-value added  mechanics of the process

  • Improve the decisions made in the process to maximize the benefit of planning to the organization

If these are the goals, then what changes do you need to make to your planning process? And if you are considering a move to Rolling Forecast, or Zero Based Budgeting, or Value Planning, or Activity Based Budgeting anything else; you need to determine how the changes to your process will get you closer to any of your goals.

As Finance professionals we’re usually pretty detailed oriented, and rigorous in our thinking. We need to apply those same skills when it comes to assessing any recommendation for changing your budget process… and recognize a false choice when we see one. 

Lawrence Serven

Founder

XLerant, Inc.

www.XLerant.com

Comments

I like your beginning; however, it is too simplistic or text bookish, soft and no meat. “Rolling Forecast, or Zero Based Budgeting, or Value Planning, or Activity Based Budgeting and other planning tools” in for profit businesses are ways of, at a minimum justifying the status quo, additional staffing, or increased spending for gains in productivity. The meat of the budget process is in the Sales and Revenue plan. All else have little justification without sound, achievable marketing plan. 
 
• Improve the reliability of our financial projections  
 
We finance professionals are detailed oriented and spend much time assessing the reliability of our financial projections; however, regardless of the financial planning tools used, it all boils down to “sources of information” and the downward pressures they are under to return objectives in line with senior management targets. Whom do you look to for revenue and sales numbers? How financial professionals do evaluate the creditability of those numbers? What measuring stick is the best tool for validating the “do-ability”, or achievability of budgeted sales and revenues? 
 
As I indicated in other writings on similar subjects, the best valuation tools are dependent on the industry. Hard goods manufacturing, professional based services like law firms, accounting and medical practices, utilities, etc. have their own financial planning methodologies and validation processes that shared one thing that is key to accuracy – Product Market awareness. This not only includes awareness of one’s own products, is inclusive of the competition and new entries. 
 
• Build a greater sense of ownership and accountability of the numbers 
 
Do you push back to the owners of the numbers, and become personally involved with how derived so that your knowledge and understanding mirrors the “real owners”, those that will be tasked with achieving the desired results? Has “the budget game” changed from Sales low-balling and finance pushing for more – budget versus stretch objectives? Alternatively, senior management so removed, they arbitrarily picking growth rates that are unobtainable and Sales rejects ownership? How often has management inject disclaimers removing themselves from ownership and accountability– those are Finance’s or Accounting’s numbers; I never agreed to those targets. Who is the arbitrator between what Sales is will to commit, and what senior management will accept? 
 
• In your hierarchy of common objectives - Improve the decisions made in the process to maximize the benefit of planning to the organization moves from last place to nearer the top in degree of importance. Poor or inadequate decisions processes lead to poor results and disassociation of ownership and commitment regards of the ownership and accountability imposed by Finance /Accounting. 
Posted @ Thursday, December 29, 2011 4:48 PM by Ron Ferro
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